The increasingly unstable security situation in Central Asia
This report is part of a series of reports released by Intelligence Fusion at the end of each month providing an analysis of incidents and trends recorded in the Central Asia Region.
Key Points
- Food prices rising across the region due partly to COVID restrictions have the potential to increase social protests.
- Multiple mining companies have been accused of damaging the environment at sites in Kyrgyzstan, pre-trial proceedings have begun.
- Heavy fighting in Afghanistan close to borders with Uzbekistan and Tajikistan is not expected to spill over into Central Asia, but may impact the volume of cross border trafficking from Afghanistan into Central Asia
Political and Business
The Central Asia region continues to see a steady rise in COVID-19 infections as local-level lockdowns persist and governments attempt to avoid full national level lockdowns. An area of concern seen in this period in the Central Asia region has been in Kyrgyzstan, where food prices have risen steadily by approximately 25% as a result of slowed production and high exports of food products during lockdowns. In response, the Kyrgyz government has introduced a temporary ban on the export of livestock and other food products in an attempt to prevent the increase. The suspension of exports is expected to have a negative impact on local producers who have relied on foreign demand as a large proportion of their income, damaging local level farming. At the time of writing, the price of food increases and the subsequent suspension of agricultural exports are yet to manifest themselves into social protests in Bishkek or regional centres.
Also in Kyrgyzstan, the State Inspection for Ecological and Technical Safety released a statement which accused a list of mining companies working in the Jalal-Abad region of causing environmental damage. Pre-trial proceedings relating to the case have begun, with 14 companies being named in national media as involved in the case. Authorities are expected to be cautious with the case, and are likely reluctant to impose strict restrictions on the mining sector as it is one of the only sectors in Kyrgyzstan which has attracted significant foreign investment. Furthermore, confidence among the mining industry as a whole in Kyrgyzstan’s stability would have been shaken by cases of mining facilities being targeted by protesters following the insecurity in the October protests. Tougher environmental restrictions as a result of the ongoing case may serve to compound these pre-existing concerns.
Social Unrest
Social unrest in the region generally remains low, however, widespread unrest was reported in Kyrgyzstan following disputed elections in October. Whilst the protests have mostly subsided across the country going into November, a large protest was reported in Bishkek in this period condemning proposed changes to the constitution. Protesters and activists fear that the proposed changes to the constitution aim to limit freedom of press and prevent government scrutiny in the lead up to presidential elections (set to take place in January 2021.) Smaller limited protests have also been recorded in Bishkek, which have mostly focused on local level social issues rather than broader political change. Protests in Kyrgyzstan are expected to continue into the next reporting period, and it is expected that any additional attempts to alter the constitution in Kyrgyzstan may lead to large political protests in key spots in Bishkek such as Ala-Too Square.
1st — 30th November 2020
Similar local level protests have been reported in two instances in Tajikistan, with one relating to the use of an abandoned hospital in Sughd and another in Dushanbe over travel restrictions placed on students during the pandemic. A media report released in this period discussed power shortages across Tajikistan and complaints made by residents over power rationing. The shortages themselves are so far yet to cause significant protests, but the timing coincides with an increase in food prices in Tajikistan, which in combination and if left to fester, may evolve into broader protests condemning local and national government.
Corruption
This reporting period saw corruption-related arrests recorded in Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. In Kyrgyzstan, the cases involved district court officials and a police officer found taking bribes. The head of the Oktyabyr district was also forced to resign amid an ongoing corruption investigation. In Tajikistan, two government officials from the Yovon district were arrested for taking bribes and the illegal sale of plots of land. Uzbekistan coverage saw the arrest of a member of a local government official in Bukhara on bribery charges.
Crime and Security
Criminal incidents in the region in this period remained similar to previous periods, with multiple reports of petty crime such as pick-pocketing and residential burglaries recorded mostly in major population centres and livestock theft being common in rural areas. The majority of robberies recorded have not involved weapons, although the use of bladed weapons and firearms is common. An incident of note occurred on November 23rd in Almaty, where the general director of a company was shot and wounded. The victim claimed that the shooting was related to his work, further details are unavailable.
Trafficking incidents in this period show two seizures of large quantities of drugs worth noting. 83kg of drugs were seized by Tajik authorities near to Kulob after the drugs entered Tajikistan from neighbouring Afghanistan’s Kunduz Province. Elsewhere, 173kg of drugs were seized from a train as it entered Tajikistan from Uzbekistan. Rising fuel and food prices mentioned in the Political and Business section may also force people towards the ‘black market’ in order to acquire basic goods and services, further contributing to a demand for other trafficked goods.
1st — 30th November 2020
Key incidents have been recorded in this period related to a suspected suppression of the activity of political activists in Kazakhstan. One of which involved a journalist who has been under house arrest and will now be transferred to a psychiatric clinic by court order. The journalist is accused of being a member of a banned group and was allegedly arrested after criticising the government’s response to COVID-19 on Facebook. A suspected case of suppression of activism was also recorded in Tajikistan. A person was arrested after they claimed online that their relative had been beaten due to their activism, a claim which authorities have denied.
From a regional security perspective, neighbouring Afghanistan continues to see substantial instability, particularly in the northern provinces on the border with Afghanistan. Typically speaking, insecurity in Afghanistan has not transferred across borders into Central Asia in the form of military insecurity, however the capture of districts which share borders with Central Asian states may potentially impact rates of cross border trafficking from Afghanistan. In this reporting period, fighting was reported in the Dasht-e-Archi district of Kunduz Province and the Maymay district of Badakshan, which border Uzbekistan and Tajikistan respectively.
close to the Uzbek and Tajik borders.
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